Role of the Vermont Presidential Primary

OK, Vermont's is not the most pivotal primary. The 630,000 of us make up something like three-eighths of one percent of the 300 million Americans. So the state's proportion of delegates to the two major party conventions — 17 of 3,101 Republicans, 23 of 3,060 Democrats — is small.

The parties do not allocate their delegates the same way.

The Democrats use a proportional representation plan. In Vermont, 15 delegates will be pledged to one candidate or another, depending on that candidate's share of the vote. A candidate who gets one third of the vote gets five of those delegates. The other eight are "super-delegates" (politics has its own jargon) such as Sen. Patrick Leahy and Rep. Peter Welch, who don't have to be pledged to anyone.

The Republicans' system is less complicated. All 17 of their delegates go to the primary winner. If there are still eight candidates, one of them could win with a plurality of as little as 13 percent, and get all the delegates. But there won't be eight candidates.

In recent months, one state after another has moved its primary or caucus to an earlier date. This "frontloading" (more jargon) means that more than half the delegates will have been chosen by February 5. The conventional wisdom is that it will all be over then. Both party nominees will have been chosen.

But remember this about politics: The conventional wisdom keeps being wrong.

Either party could still have a contest on March 4, making every delegate pivotal, even our paltry few.